Decision making Eco-system

Life surely is about the choices we make and not about the options we have. Most of life's life changing decisions come without a warning and as a result, one is not left with time to think and decide. Therefore most such decisions tend to be intuitive and are fueled by emotion.

Very rarely do we find ourselves with enough time to think and then decide. I think I am going through one such phase! My thoughts over the past few days have led me into hypothesizing certain aspects of decision making. Hence this post.

As popular jargon goes, decisions are either rational or intuitive and driven by emotions. There are enough and more success stories of either kind of decisions. In the process of decision making, we consult and solicit advise from a variety of quarters - collectively I call these quarters the decision making eco-system. My hypothesis has to do with this conscience keeping eco-system that we bank on.

Strong emotions of the doer propel him/her to great levels of courage, passion and perseverance - the essential traits in any success story. The same cannot hold true when the eco-system throws up emotional advise, since the doer doesn't own the emotion.

Intuitive/emotional decisions work only when the 'doer' resorts to it. When the eco-system too resorts to an intuitive approach, then certainly all is not right. For a balanced decision to happen, the eco-system needs to throw up purely rational advise while the doer could rely on both reason or a strong emotion that the issue rakes up.

While this may seem obvious, it is important to be understood. Like they say, there are no guarantees in life.

PS: Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards

Desi lingo web content for 3G phones

Yesterday evening, I was watching a television discussion on the popularity of new age communication like Twitter in India in the context of Shashi Tharoor's 'cattle class' remarks. The panelists on the discussion were unanimous that the reach of the new age media - Internet - was only marginal in India as of now. The arguments on which this premise was drawn were the following limitations:

• The almost prohibitive cost of owning computer/ laptops for the average rural Indian.
• Little or NO access to computer at workplace or otherwise for the average Indian.
• English speaking pockets in India limited to Urban areas.

In other words, these very 3 points are the enablers for the popularity of Internet to the so-called upwardly mobile, educated and English speaking Urban Indian.

Like all revolutionary ideas come, I think I had a eureka moment here. I quickly tried to understand and see this in the context of the article I read in Times of India the same day. The article mentioned that within an year the 3G phone prices in India could fall to as low as Rs. 4000/-!!!

Like it is often said for Innovation, the enabler is itself the greatest constraint. The evolution of the mobile phone technology to the extent of substituing a computer for high speed internet access has clearly challenged the first two limitations and made them irrelevant.

However, I think the third point still holds valid.

A huge market awaits those who can challenge the 3rd constraint. This could be done in quite a few ways. I think it is far more easier to build content in the vernacular than to teach colonial Englsih to the average Indian. We could have numerous 3G ready websites that host content in the local Indian languages. This wave could really bridge the gap and provide access to information and entertainment to the most deprived sections. Building low cost data-to-voice and voice-to-data applications could enhance the reach to the aged, and even to those who have never know the alphabet.

Need to watch this space for the Innovators, the Early adaptors and the business models that emerge here..

Cultivating CONSUMERISM

There comes a point of saturation in every rich man's life that he owns everything he needs and he buys no more. Ditto with rich countries. At this point of saturation there are 3 kinds of demand that drive growth namely, 

• Replacement demand - to replace old products that are not satisfactorily functional
  
• New Product demand - a product that satisfies previously unsatiated needs. Too far and too few innovations
  
• FMCG demand - regular consumption, as the name suggests

These demands cannot fuel double digit growth of economies. On this intersting premise,  Arindham Chaudhuri builds the case why the current recession is good for India and other emerging economies. 

Drawing an example, he suggests that it is essentially because of this phenomenon coupled with the non-materialistic culture of the country and its declining population that the Japanese economy has been reeling under recessionary pressure for over the last decade.

He extends the logic to Americas and Europe where he says despite the above mentioned saturation, people have been drawn to buying more than they actually need owing to their materialistic culture and easily available credit. Now a time has come when on an avearge every American's income for the next 15 years has been pledged to fuel this consumerism. This has in effect built up a dangerous bubble. Credit cannot no more drive safely drive consumerism here. The bubble has burst and banks can no more offer have loans that are not sub-prime. 

Why is it good for India?

Like the Sonys and the Toyotas moved outside the boundaries of the Japanese market in search of growth over the last few decades, the only option ahead of the America Inc is to explore large virgin markets viz. India, China, Eastern Europe, Latin America SE Asia and Africa. In essence these companies will also work to give the Indian population the purchasing power  that can so much be a short-cut for all their investor's woes. The next couple of decades look promising !!! 

To read more: Page 62, B&E, 30th April 2009

The Business of IPL II

Our Home Minister P Chidambaram recently called the IPL a shrewd combination of cricket and business. Politics or no politics, the bottomline surely is that the tourney has moved not just out of the country but to an another continent alltogether. 

Looking at the business part of it, I think few business have such flexibilty to move the field of action with such impunity like the IPL. Perhaps the high stakes involved demanded that the event be organized. But at what cost, remains to be seen. The main sources of revenue for any sporting event remain the ticket sales, on-ground sponsorships and telecast rights. 

• Ticket Sales: South Africa surely is a sport loving country. Unfortunately Cricket does not enjoy the same popularity in SA as in India. Rugby and Football are the country's most popular sports. Cricket comes a close third. Therefore, the attendance at the stadiums is surely going to be an issue. Another factor that could eat in to the ticket sales pie is is the match timings which are alligned to suit viewers in India. (An IST 4pm start would mean that the match starts soon after noon in SA.) It remains to be seen how much Lalit Modi's recently announced cheaper tickets initiative can help drawing crowds.  
• On-ground advertising: The ongoing India-New Zealand series has a a sizeable chunk of on-ground adertising from Indian corporate like CEAT and IndianOil. Ditto during India's recent Sri Lanka tour. This only shows how much of the Cricketing economy is dependant on India. Hence, in a recession hit scenario the on-ground advertising revenue from local South African corporate is also likely to go for a toss. Even regular sponsors would turn hard bargainers. 
• Telecast rights: This revenue channel looks the sole saviour for this year's tourney. With the new deal signed by the BCCI for a better price, the telecast money could perhaps off-set the impending loss from the other channels atleast to a certain extent. This essentially tells us how much technology has revolutionized not just conventional businees but also the emerging business of IPL. The flexibility that technology brings is amazing, quite literally!!

Adding to the already gloomy picture is cost escalation for the BCCI that has agreed to cover the additional costs of the franchisees that would result from the sudden shift of location. Surely, BCCI and its franchisees are not heading for positive cash flows this season.